predictor on The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration believes There is a 75 percent chance that La Nia will be around during the winter, which will play a key role in who will see the snow and which communities will need to put their gear in storage for another year.
Historical data shows how strong La Nia is and can determine which parts of the country will be subject to unusual weather conditions.
La Nia status is determined From sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific.
A moderate La Nia consists of anomalies that range from -1.0 °C to -1.4 °C, and when the water temperature is at least -1.5 °C below normal, a La Nia is considered strong.
Depending on whether La Nia is weak, moderate or strong, snow accumulation, freezing temperatures and all other aspects that accompany Old Man Winter will have a dramatic effect.
Climate forecast models indicate that the 2022-23 La Nia is likely to be weak or moderate during the country’s winter.
Historically, weak La Nias tend to have more dramatic effects across the country than more moderate events.
During a weak episode, much of the country should expect winter temperatures to be at or below average. Rainfall is generally hard on both coasts, but communities in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the northern Rockies generally see increased precipitation.
A moderate La Nia leads to warm weather in the southern part of the country. During these events, the freezes are low in the south and fade away in the middle. Most of the country sees either normal or above average dry conditions, leading to less rainfall and snowfall. Exceptions include the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest. These regions have historically seen above-average rainfall when a moderate La Nia is under control.
Here is an analysis of possible winter outcomes for the 2022-23 winter season.
Northeast
La Nia winters are quite cold in the region, and rainfall usually becomes the story of the rich.
Winter weather enthusiasts don’t need to look back to see more La Nia effects than last year.
many of the area Ski resorts off to a slow start because of the lack of snowfall, and there were questions as to whether Enough powder on the ground to make snow sculptures for the Buffalo Bills playoff game in January,
The late-season blitz by Mother Nature helped many communities recover from the lack of snowfall.
Several winter storms in January and February helped cities end up with or above average for rainfall along the I-95 corridor.
middle West
La Nia usually results in temperatures that are far below average in the Midwest. The Arctic air never stops invading this part of the country.
Precipitation depends on one’s exact location, but regions of the northern Great Lakes are usually in the winter target zone.
Much of the Midwest misses breaking snowfall records during this type of climate pattern.
Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Minneapolis typically see their snowiest winters during El Nios.
Because of its geographic location, Detroit’s snowiest year is considered a La Nada – or neutral year when neither El Nio or La Nia was under control.
Southeast
Winters can vary greatly depending on whether La Nia is considered weak or moderate.
A strong La Nia causes warmer temperatures in the Southeast. The southern states report lower temperatures during these winters.
Large parts of the Sunshine State may have luck avoiding the cold during a moderate or strong La Nia.
When La Nia weakens, cold air can make it to South and South Florida.
The freezing temperatures can also be quite dangerous for the sensitive crops of the state.
Most of the region, except the Tennessee Valley, remains drier than average during the La Nia regime.
Depending on how weak or strong the La Nia is, parts of the Tennessee Valley generally extend significantly further on rainfall.
Because of the warm air typically present during these events, studies have found that tornado outbreaks are more likely.
“Preliminary research indicates that La Nia corresponds to a particularly active phase for tornadoes in the Deep South, with a relatively high frequency of cold-weather outbreaks of EF2 or stronger tornadoes,” National Weather Service Office in Jackson, Mississippi said,
The combination of an active jet stream, plentiful moisture and the collision of air masses helped break the record Deadly tornado outbreak in December 2021, The outbreak included a rare EF-4 long-track tornado that flattened parts of Mayfield, Kentucky.
A moderate La Nia caused an extremely warm December during the winter of 2021–2022, with hundreds of communities reaching their 70s and 80s. Several southern states reported experiencing their warmest December on record.
west
More than 94 percent of the West is experiencing drought conditions that range from unusually dry to exceptional, but for most, La Nia means a continuous dry weather pattern, with a few exceptions.
The past moderate La Nia has resulted in record rainfall events for the Pacific Northwest.
Historical data suggests that the temporal tap of atmospheric rivers closes during a weak La Nia.
The situation in La Nia doesn’t matter to California. The state generally sees drought compared to normal conditions.
The northern Rockies typically see beneficial snow during La Nia events.
Temperatures remain below normal during moderate La Nia, but may be well below normal during weak climate patterns.